Any time I'm making small talk with someone -- a new hairdresser, a nurse in the doctor's office, someone at a party -- and the question of what I do for a living comes up, the same follow-up question is inevitably asked. "So what do you think about these new ebook things -- are they going to be the end of libraries?"
The question always kind of amuses me, in part because I wonder if people are ever concerned that they'll give me something new to worry about. ("What if ebooks are the end of libraries?? Oh no!") It also, at least in the beginning, left me rather speechless -- because I honestly didn't have an answer for them.
But in my opinion, the real mystery is not so much a question of ebooks being the end of libraries as it is a question of ebooks being the end of physical, printed books, period. Are eReaders the next stage of evolution, similar to the invention of Gutenberg's printing press? Is this the end of an era?
But let me back up a bit. What is an ebook, anyway?
"Ebook" (a word so new that we haven't really yet decided if it's correct to write "ebook," "e-book," or "eBook") is short for "electronic book," and it's exactly what it sounds like: a book-sized document you can read on a screen.
I say "screen" because you can read ebooks on more than just a computer -- iPads, smartphones, and eReaders (the latter of which are designed specifically to read ebooks on) all have the capability of displaying ebooks. In particular, eReaders are gaining in popularity -- devices like the Amazon Kindle, the Sony eReader, and the Barnes and Noble Nook are becoming more and more common purchases.
The statistics are everywhere. Sales of ebooks in January 2011 rose more than 115% from the same time the previous year. In pure dollar terms, we saw an increase from $32.4 million in January 2010 to $69.9 million in January 2011. (Meanwhile, sales of paperback and hardback books are dropping.) Last year saw ebooks jump from 1.5% of total US book sales in 2009 to 5% of the market in the first quarter of 2010 alone. And the numbers won't stop there -- ebooks will be a $3 billion a year industry by 2015.
Although ebooks have been around for decades, we've come a long way from even just 2000, when Stephen King announced he was publishing his new novella, Riding the Bullet, exclusively in an electronic format. The internet was abuzz with the implications of such an action, with dire predictions about the soon-to-be extinction of printed books (which many book lovers would tell you is a tragedy, indeed).
Over a decade later, publishers and book shops are still selling plenty of print copies, although it is true that book sales are declining even as ebook sales are increasing. There are plenty of theories as to why this holds true -- everything from the new technology making the act of reading more attractive to people who are generally non-readers, to the cheaper ebooks being more attractive to people in our current economic climate. (eBooks generally sell for a few dollars apiece -- although, with ereaders costing anywhere from $150-300 and up, you could argue it takes a lot of ebooks to make up for the price savings.) eBooks have also made it possible for out-of-print books and self-published materials to be made available to a much wider audience, an unexpected advantage for many authors.
So what does this mean, not only for the printed book, but for libraries? Are both of these commodities about to become obsolete?
In a word -- No.
For one thing, we're a far cry from losing the printed book entirely. While it's true that eBook popularity is on the rise (and is likely to continue rising higher), it's impossible to know for sure just how big the ebook craze will become. Only time will truly tell how much the ebook becomes a permanent part of how people read.
As for the ebook effect on libraries? As I've finally taken to telling people (in answer to their "will ebooks be the end of libraries" queries) is that libraries have always incorporated the latest technological advances into their services. The mainstream introduction of computers and the internet into everyday life didn't spell the end of libraries -- rather, offering those services became a core component of what libraries do. And ebooks are shaping up to be treated no differently: Monroeville Public Library (and the other libraries of Allegheny County) are already offering ebook services through Overdrive, where you can virtually "check out" ebooks and e-audiobooks for your Nook, Sony eReader, iPad, iPod, and more -- for free!
My own opinion of ebooks rather matches Stephen King's -- it's the story that's important, not the delivery system. I love my printed books and would never want to give them up, but as long as people are still reading stories, that's all that really counts to me in the end.
And, in the end, it's impossible to know just exactly what the future of ebooks will hold. Because as we learned from J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter series (which are not available in ebook format), not even Professor Trelawney can really predict what the future holds.
Well. Maybe except for one thing: In an Age of Information, libraries will never become obsolete.
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